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🧠 The Jobs Most Likely to Shrink in the Next 3 Years

What the Data from McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, and OpenAI Actually Reveals — and How to Stay Ahead of It

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Hi friends 👋

A few months ago, I came across a McKinsey chart that I couldn’t stop thinking about.

It showed that by 2030, nearly 30% of current work hours could be automated — not by the robots we imagine, but by AI tools we already use. That’s one in every three tasks you or I do today.

At first glance, it felt like another overhyped headline.
But the more I read, the more unsettling the pattern became.

The real shift isn’t that jobs are disappearing.
It’s that they’re thinning.

AI isn’t replacing entire professions — it’s eroding them from the inside out.
First, it automates a few tasks.
Then, it changes what “doing the job” means.
And finally, it reduces the need for as many people to do it.

No headlines. No mass layoffs.
Just quiet compression.

And that’s what I want to explore today — the reality behind the data, and what it means for anyone building a career, a product, or a company in this AI-driven decade.

We’ll unpack:

  1. What the research actually says (without the noise)

  2. Why jobs aren’t being replaced, but redesigned

  3. The three layers of “job erosion” happening inside companies right now

  4. The five roles most exposed between now and 2028

  5. The frameworks you can use to future-proof your own career

  6. And finally, how to build skills that can’t be automated — even as AI gets smarter every day

Let’s get into it.

— Naseema Perveen

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